On a peace treaty between the US and North Korea

　The other day, the US government announced that they had an option to conclude a peace treaty with North Korea on the condition that all of the nuclear facilities were dismantled. But I don’t think this is the way to go for the following two reasons.

　It is firstly because the treaty will send a dangerous massage to the world: Get nukes first. The purpose of the treaty would be to keep North Korea’s nuclear sites under surveillance, as is the case for India, but the consequence will be the other way round. The treaty will accelerate nuclear proliferation.

　Secondly, if North Korea betrays the treaty as it did to many international agreements in the past, the conditions will be much more exacerbated. They may divert nuclear technology from the US to military use.

　First, let us have a look at what is going on. The attitude of countries toward nuclear development is changing. Unlike a decade ago, a growing number of countries have become nuclear wannabes. Why is that? It is because they have realized that nuke is really a strong bargaining chip. Take the example of India. When it first tested a nuclear bomb, it became the object of international criticism at first. However, now that no one believes India will disassemble nuclear arsenal some day, many countries are now trying to cooperate with India, partly because cooperation will make it easier to supervise its nuclear facilities, and partly because they want India’s geopolitical power. The US and Japan are ones of them. India gained supports from superpowers in the end thanks to the nuclear bombs. What was the massage? It was; once you endure transient sanctions from others, you can win the power both military and diplomatic.

　Looking at examples like this, some countries like Brazil are reviewing their nuclear policy. They now regret they signed NPT, which India and Pakistan have not inked. NPT serves as the last deterrent for these countries to go nuclear. Then, what will happen if the US conclude a peace treaty with North Korea and back up nuclear power plant? The NPT members will think that even if one country is a member, it is highly likely that once it engages in nuclear weapons development, the bombs will go in one’s favor at the end of the day. It is not hard to imagine that some of the NPT members withdraw from NPT and develop nukes on their own. Such world will not benefit the US either.

　Secondly, we must take into account that North Korea is a rogue state like Iraq was. Remember that Iraq was once militarily supported by western countries including US. Iraq was an ally at first, but reversed itself later. In both cases of Gulf War and Iraq War, Iraq used western-made weapons. What if a similar thing happens to North Korea? The next weapon that US must combat may not conventional one but nukes.

　From these reasons above, I oppose the peace treaty.